Forget Robert Mueller and Stormy Daniels. Ignore Russia. If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win – and if America’s economy remains robust he may well win again in 2020, according to Wall Street.
According to Politico, a basket of Wall Street’s finest eggheads have concluded that economics is the final arbiter of election victories and, if current trends continue, odds are Trump will romp home in 2020.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, told Politico. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
TrendMacrolytics correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not.
The US unemployment rate is currently close to 4%, and the country has added jobs every month for a record 101 months in a row. Wage growth, which has lagged behind jobs growth since the recession, is finally, if slowly, picking up.
US gross domestic product – the widest measure of economic health – is now about 3.4%, up from 1.8% in the first quarter of Trump’s presidency.
There are – of course – problems. Most mainstream economists believe a slowdown is coming. And then there is Trump’s popularity problem.